Solution concepts in hypergames

摘要

A new and comprehensive methodology, called hypergame analysis, has been developed for modeling and analyzing conflicts where one or more participants have misperceptions about the nature of the conflict. In this paper, various solution concepts for describing human behavior are formally defined in order to predict the possible resolutions to hypergames. The relationships among solution sets, which are identified under various solution concepts, are examined mathematically within the general contents of hypergame analysis. It is found that introducing misperceptions into a game does not change the game's equilibrium properties. It can be proved that every hypergame has at least one overall equilibrium under Fraser and Hipel's solution concept. With these developments, the effect of misperceptions in hypergames can be examined from different perspectives, the influence of information on conflict decision making can be highlighted, and the behavioral patterns of human beings in a conflict can be better understood. The work presented in this paper enhances significantly the capacity of hypergame analysis to handle a wide range of real-world conflicts.