An accurate epidemiological model

摘要

In this paper, we present the mathematical basis for generating and assessing simulated disease profiles (S-curves) in plant-pathogen (or other) epidemics with the emphasis on accuracy. After introducing in Section 1 the various modeling factors for disease development, in Section 2, we construct a theoretical epidemiological model based on these factors and also discuss a control strategy. In Section 3, we develop a computational model and compare it with earlier models in epidemiology. Finally, in Section 4, we discuss the simulation results of models and draw a conclusion about the superior accuracy of CME, which is an integrated epidemiological model capable of absorbing the interactions between pathogen, host and environment.