Recursive estimation: A unified approach to the identification estimation, and forecasting of hydrological systems

摘要

Mathematical models of hydrological and water-resource systems have been formulated in many different ways and with various levels of complexity. There are advantages to be gained, therefore, by trying to unify some of the more common models within a statistical framework which will allow for more objective methods of model calibration. In this paper, we consider the general class of linear, dynamic models, as applied to the characterisation of flow and dispersion behavior in rivers, and show how these can be unified within the context of recursive time-series analysis and estimation. This allows not only for more objective, data-based approaches to stochastic model structure identification, but also for improved statistical estimation and the development of both constant parameter and self-adaptive, Kalman-filter-based forecasting procedures. The unified approach presented in the paper is being applied successfully in other environmental areas, such as soil science, climatic data analysis, meterological forecasting, and plant physiology.