A view of maximum-likelihood estimation with large conceptual hydrologic models

摘要

Maximum-likelihood procedures are used in a two-step algorithm to identify parameters of a large conceptual hydrologic model. Initially a procedure is suggested to identify the periods of dominating groundwater flow (base flow) and the parameters corresponding to the model components responsible for that response. In a second step the identified parameters are used as prior information in a maximum-likelihood estimation of the complete set of parameters of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Two case-study areas are used to test and illustrate the algorithm. The base-flow estimation step was found quite satisfactory, but several problems remained unsolved when attempts were made to identify the many parameters of a large model.