Sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system by dynamic immigration control

摘要

The sustainability of a pay-as-you-go pension system strongly depends on the underlying demographic process determining the inverse old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of the active subpopulation to pensioners), considered as a sustainability index. Based on the classical Leslie population model, a dynamic demographic model including a controlled immigration is set up. A convergent algorithm is given which steers the population towards a demographic equilibrium with a better sustainability index, and at the same time minimizes the yearly immigration. In addition, simulations are provided for Italian data, comparing the demographic dynamics corresponding to different decision scenarios.