Disease clearance of tuberculosis infection: An in-host continuous-time Markov chain model
作者：
Highlights：
• The TB clearance is an example of protective immunity against Mtb. The study could give new insights into therapy and vaccine development.
• A continuous-time Markov chain model is formulated to model the initial infection.
• The finite disease clearance is predicted through the theory of branching processes.
• The probability of disease clearance/extinction is computed using the CTMC model when R0>1.
• The finite time to disease extinction is also approximated through the CTMC model.
• Our results demonstrate that modifying host factors can increase the probability of clearance and decrease the time to reach clearance.
摘要
•The TB clearance is an example of protective immunity against Mtb. The study could give new insights into therapy and vaccine development.•A continuous-time Markov chain model is formulated to model the initial infection.•The finite disease clearance is predicted through the theory of branching processes.•The probability of disease clearance/extinction is computed using the CTMC model when R0>1.•The finite time to disease extinction is also approximated through the CTMC model.•Our results demonstrate that modifying host factors can increase the probability of clearance and decrease the time to reach clearance.
论文关键词：Continuous-time Markov chain,Multitype branching processes,In-host tuberculosis model,Disease clearance
论文评审过程：Received 1 April 2021, Revised 16 July 2021, Accepted 18 August 2021, Available online 31 August 2021, Version of Record 31 August 2021.
论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2021.126614
