The vulnerability of the transferable belief model to Dutch books

摘要

Smets and Kennes have claimed that the transferable belief model, a decision and inference procedure based upon the Dempster-Shafer formalism, never exposes the believer to a kind of betting conundrum known as a “Dutch book”. A Dutch book is constructed against the model in an elaboration of an example proposed by Smets and Kennes. A condition which permits this Dutch book is identified, and is shown to conflict with an intuition about reasonable belief revision which is not confined to the probabilist community.