How the individuals’ risk aversion affect the epidemic spreading

摘要

Some diseases can live in people for many years without making them sick, during this time, the bacteria can spread to others who come in contact with the infected person. However, explosive individuals in infected people will exhibit certain dominant states associated with infectious diseases, as a results, the uninfected persons will avoid contact with such individuals with dominant infectious diseases. Considering the individual’s ability to avoid risks in the epidemic season, we propose the epidemic spreading model with individuals’ sensitivity. The epidemic spreading threshold is calculated by means of the mean-field theory and the next-generation matrix method. In addition, the locally, globally and exponential asymptotically stable conditions in the disease-free equilibrium state are given. Finally, we simulate the proposed epidemic spreading modeling in the ER random network and the BA scale-free network. The numerical simulations results show that the probability of the latent individuals transforming into explosive individuals has a greater impact on the spread of infectious diseases. Meanwhile, self-protection is an effective measure to reduce the outbreak of infectious diseases.