A multi-experts and multi-criteria risk assessment model for safety risks in oil and gas industry integrating risk attitudes

摘要

This paper mainly proposes a novel method to establish a risk matrix for assessing safety risks in oil and gas industry. The frequency and the consequence of risk are two desired criteria in the establishment process of a risk matrix. In fact, more than two criteria and several experts are often involved, so a multi-criteria and multi-experts information integration (MEMCII) model is constructed in this paper. Firstly, the method of the determination of experts’ weights is introduced to integrate experts’ assessment scores based on the objective weights and the subjective weights. Secondly, the weighted ordered weighted operator (WOWA) with a utility interpolation function is proposed to derive the overall consequence integrating people’s risk attitudes. Finally, a risk matrix is established to show which risks are highly dangerous and which can be ignored. In addition, an application is demonstrated to illustrate the efficiency and flexibility of the proposed model.