Building an influence diagram in a knowledge-based decision system

摘要

In decision analysis, building a decision model such as an influence diagram is a burdensome problem requiring time and effort, and the resulting model is generally applicable to only one specific problem. In this research, an influence diagram is built using the technology of knowledge-based systems that utilizes the information learned in one decision problem to solve other similar problems. We designed and developed a knowledge-based decision system, KIDS (Knowledge-based Influence Diagram generating System), in Macintosh using Hypertalk. KIDS is applied to a subset of raw-material buyer problems of Cheil Synthetic Inc., which has produced textile products. KIDS decreases the amount of time and effort for modeling and analyzing decision problems, and it is believed to increase the acceptance of decision analysis as a useful tool.