A MCDM-based expert system for climate-change impact assessment and adaptation planning – A case study for the Georgia Basin, Canada

摘要

An MCDM-based expert system was developed to tackle the interrelationships between the climate change and the adaptation policies in terms of water resources management in the Georgia Basin, Canada. User interfaces of the developed expert system, named MAEAC (MCDM-based expert system for adaptation analysis under changing climate), was developed based on system configuration, knowledge acquisition, survey analysis, and MCDM-based policy analysis. A number of processes that were vulnerable to climate change were examined and pre-screened through extensive literature review, expert consultation and statistical analysis. Adaptation policies to impacts of temperature increase, precipitation-pattern variation and sea-level rise were comprehensively explicated and incorporated within the developed system. The MAEAC could be used for both acquiring knowledge of climate-change impacts on water resources in the Georgia Basin and supporting formulation of the relevant adaptation policies. It can also be applied to other watersheds to facilitate assessment of climate-change impacts on socio-economic and environmental sectors, as well as formulation of relevant adaptation policies.