Fuzzy dual-factor time-series for stock index forecasting

摘要

There is an old Wall Street adage goes, “It takes volume to make price move”. The contemporaneous relation between trading volume and stock returns has been studied since stock markets were first opened. Recent researchers such as Wang and Chin [Wang, C. Y., & Chin S. T. (2004). Profitability of return and volume-based investment strategies in China’s stock market. Pacific-Basin Finace Journal, 12, 541–564], Hodgson et al. [Hodgson, A., Masih, A. M. M., & Masih, R. (2006). Futures trading volume as a determinant of prices in different momentum phases. International Review of Financial Analysis, 15, 68–85], and Ting [Ting, J. J. L. (2003). Causalities of the Taiwan stock market. Physica A, 324, 285–295] have found the correlation between stock volume and price in stock markets. To verify this saying, in this paper, we propose a dual-factor modified fuzzy time-series model, which take stock index and trading volume as forecasting factors to predict stock index. In empirical analysis, we employ the TAIEX (Taiwan stock exchange capitalization weighted stock index) and NASDAQ (National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations) as experimental datasets and two multiple-factor models, Chen’s [Chen, S. M. (2000). Temperature prediction using fuzzy time-series. IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics, 30 (2), 263–275] and Huarng and Yu’s [Huarng, K. H., & Yu, H. K. (2005). A type 2 fuzzy time-series model for stock index forecasting. Physica A, 353, 445–462], as comparison models. The experimental results indicate that the proposed model outperforms the listing models and the employed factors, stock index and the volume technical indicator, VR(t), are effective in stock index forecasting.