Forecasting the output of integrated circuit industry using genetic algorithm based multivariable grey optimization models

摘要

Accurate and immediate forecast in the short product life cycle of semiconductor market is difficult, but important. This paper proposed a grey model with factor analysis techniques to deal with the multi-factor forecasting problems. In the grey modeling, the use of genetic algorithm has the ability to search global optimum solution to construct two improved multivariable grey forecasting models that are AGAGM(1,N) and GAGM(1,N). These two models are applied for forecasting Taiwanese integrated circuit output. The results of the factor analysis show that the major factors of Taiwan’s integrated circuit output comprise R&D intensity, foreign investment, index of industrial production, trade specialization coefficient, and intra-industry trade coefficient. The improved multivariable grey forecasting models are found to be feasible and effective.