Conceptual cost estimates using evolutionary fuzzy hybrid neural network for projects in construction industry

摘要

Conceptual cost estimates are important to project feasibility studies and impact upon final project success. Such estimates provide significant information that can be used in project evaluations, engineering designs, cost budgeting and cost management. This study proposes an artificial intelligence approach, the evolutionary fuzzy hybrid neural network (EFHNN), to improve conceptual cost estimate precision. This approach first integrates neural networks (NN) and high order neural networks (HONN) into a hybrid neural network (HNN), which operates with alternating linear and non-linear neuron layer connectors. Fuzzy logic (FL) is then used in the HNN to handle uncertainties, an approach that evolves the HNN into a fuzzy hybrid neural network (FHNN). As a genetic algorithm is employed on the FL and HNN to optimize the FHNN, the final version used for this study may be most aptly termed an ‘EFHNN’. For this study, estimates of overall and category costs for actual projects were calculated and compared. Results showed that the proposed EFHNN may be deployed effectively as an accurate cost estimator during the early stages of construction projects. Moreover, the performance of linear and non-linear neuron layer connectors in EFHNN surpasses models that deploy a singular linear NN.