An integrated scenario-based multi-criteria decision support system for water resources management and planning – A case study in the Haihe River Basin

摘要

In this study, an integrated scenario-based multi-criteria decision support system (SMC-DSS) is developed for planning water resources management in the Haihe River Basin. The SMC-DSS incorporates techniques of scenario analysis, multiobjective programming (MOP), and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) within a decision support systems (DSS) framework. The system components include system composition, scenario generation, scenario quantification, multiobjective optimization, and scenario evaluation. SMC-DSS can solve complex water resources management planning problem which may involve several conflict objectives, and can deal with uncertainties expressed as possible outcomes. The SMC-DSS can be used for assessing management policy impacts on socio-economic and environmental sectors and supporting the formulation of relevant management policies under uncertainty. It is effective for large-scale problems with thousands of parameters and variables and in association with uncertain features. The developed SMC-DSS is then applied to planning water resources management in the Haihe River Basin, China. A number of scenarios based on different water resources management policies are conducted. The results indicate that different water management policies could lead to varied patterns for regional economic development and environmental protection. The results obtained are valuable for identifying desired water resources management policies and planning sustainable regional development patterns.