On the dynamic evidential reasoning algorithm for fault prediction

摘要

In this paper, a new fault prediction model is presented to deal with the fault prediction problems in the presence of both quantitative and qualitative data based on the dynamic evidential reasoning (DER) approach. In engineering practice, system performance is constantly changed with time. As such, there is a need to develop a supporting mechanism that can be used to conduct dynamic fusion with time, and establish a prediction model to trace and predict system performance. In this paper, a DER approach is first developed to realize dynamic fusion. The new approach takes account of time effect by introducing belief decaying factor, which reflects the nature that evidence credibility is decreasing over time. Theoretically, it is show that the new DER aggregation schemes also satisfy the synthesis theorems. Then a fault prediction model based on the DER approach is established and several optimization models are developed for locally training the DER prediction model. The main feature of these optimization models is that only partial input and output information is required, which can be either incomplete or vague, either numerical or judgmental, or mixed. The models can be used to fine tune the DER prediction model whose initial parameters are decided by expert’s knowledge or common sense. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to illustrate the detailed implementation procedures of the proposed approach and demonstrate its potential applications in fault prediction.