A hybrid forecasting model for enrollments based on aggregated fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization

摘要

In this paper, a new forecasting model based on two computational methods, fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization, is presented for academic enrollments. Most of fuzzy time series forecasting methods are based on modeling the global nature of the series behavior in the past data. To improve forecasting accuracy of fuzzy time series, the global information of fuzzy logical relationships is aggregated with the local information of latest fuzzy fluctuation to find the forecasting value in fuzzy time series. After that, a new forecasting model based on fuzzy time series and particle swarm optimization is developed to adjust the lengths of intervals in the universe of discourse. From the empirical study of forecasting enrollments of students of the University of Alabama, the experimental results show that the proposed model gets lower forecasting errors than those of other existing models including both training and testing phases.