A multi-model approach for long-term runoff modeling using rainfall forecasts

摘要

This work presents the development of a rainfall–runoff model for the Iguaçu River basin in the south of Brazil. The model was developed to support the operational planning of hydroelectric power plants and is intended to compute natural flow predictions based on meteorological rain forecasts. A recurrent fuzzy system model was employed, with parameters estimated by a genetic algorithm using observed rainfall as input. This work presents the recurrent fuzzy model within a multi-model approach, where the input data are furnished as an envelope, resulting in a prediction envelope that has demonstrated the ability to produce robust results.