Bayesian network modeling of Port State Control inspection findings and ship accident involvement

作者:

Highlights:

• Bayesian network models of Port State Control findings and accidents are proposed.

• NPC algorithm outperforms score-based greedy search in learning the model.

• A hidden variable representing the complete ship system and its safety is introduced.

• Models with a binary system safety variable is preferred over the other alternatives.

• Structural conditions is the most informative deficiency type for accident probability.

摘要

•Bayesian network models of Port State Control findings and accidents are proposed.•NPC algorithm outperforms score-based greedy search in learning the model.•A hidden variable representing the complete ship system and its safety is introduced.•Models with a binary system safety variable is preferred over the other alternatives.•Structural conditions is the most informative deficiency type for accident probability.

论文关键词:Maritime traffic accidents,Bayesian networks,Port State Control,Hidden variables,Maritime traffic safety

论文评审过程:Available online 2 September 2013.

论文官网地址:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2013.08.060