A computational method for fitting Richardson equations of arms races

摘要

Several mathematical models have been developed for describing international arms races, military conflicts, and other interactions between nations. A crucial question is whether or not such equations can be fitted to actual data. If the answer is in the affirmative, then there are tremendous opportunities for prediction and planning. We present a mathematical and computational method for estimating not only parameters in dynamical models of armament races, but also a complete set of unknown initial conditions. Computational results show the comple feasibility of the quasilinearization method, but further investigation is needed to determine capabilities and limitations of this new approach.