Impact of global climate change on temperature and precipitation in Greece

摘要

A stochastic space-time model is used at four locations in Greece for estimating the effect of global climate change on daily temperature and precipitation. The approach is based on a semi-empirical downscaling of simulated daily atmospheric Circulation Patterns (CP) of General Circulation Models (GCM). Historical data and a 10-year outputs of the Max Planck Institute GCM for the 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 cases are used. Nine CP types for the winter and summer half years are obtained to characterize large-scale climatic forcing in Greece, Local temperature and precipitation appear to be highly dependent on CP types. The space-time response of daily temperature to global climate change is slightly variable in Greece. In general, a warmer climate will imply nearly 3°C increase in fall and in winter. The variability within the month will not change considerably. A slight but statistically significant increase of precipitation is obtained at one location and an insignificant increase is found at the other three locations.