Using extended hazard regression model to assess the probability of aviation event

摘要

Flight safety has always been the major attention subject in civil aviation in view of the rapid and continuous growth in air transportation traffic volume. The Airline Safety Assessment System, which is currently under development by the Taiwan Civil Aeronautics Administration (CAA), will contain indicators of airline safety performance that can identify potential problem areas for inspectors. The objective of this research is to develop an analytic method that uses data on both accident and performance measures to analyze potential aviation event. The extended hazard regression (EHR) model was conducted to assess the probability of aviation event and analyze how the probability may be affected by airline safety performance. We investigated and demonstrated its applicability in a practical case study.