Identifiability analysis of linear ordinary differential equation systems with a single trajectory

摘要

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to model dynamical behavior of systems. It is important to perform identifiability analysis prior to estimating unknown parameters in ODEs (a.k.a. inverse problem), because if a system is unidentifiable, the estimation procedure may fail or produce erroneous and misleading results. Although several qualitative identifiability measures have been proposed, much less effort has been given to developing quantitative (continuous) scores that are robust to uncertainties in the data, especially for those cases in which the data are presented as a single trajectory beginning with one initial value. In this paper, we first derived a closed-form representation of linear ODE systems that are not identifiable based on a single trajectory. This representation helps researchers design practical systems and choose the right prior structural information in practice. Next, we proposed several quantitative scores for identifiability analysis in practice. In simulation studies, the proposed measures outperformed the main competing method significantly, especially when noise was presented in the data. We also discussed the asymptotic properties of practical identifiability for high-dimensional ODE systems and conclude that, without additional prior information, many random ODE systems are practically unidentifiable when the dimension approaches infinity.