The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness

摘要

Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions, such as scheduling, resource planning and marketing depend. Forecast accuracy is, therefore, an important component in the delivery of an effective supply chain. Typically, the forecasts are produced by integrating managerial judgment with quantitative forecasts within a forecasting support system (FSS). However, there is much evidence that this integration is often carried out poorly with deleterious effects on accuracy. This study integrates the literatures on forecasting and decision support to explain the causes of the problem and to identify design features of FSSs that might help to ameliorate it. It is also argued that, by studying the supply chain forecasting task, DSS researchers could learn much about decision support in general and also make a significant contribution to the improvement of forecasting practice.