Real-time container transport planning with decision trees based on offline obtained optimal solutions

作者:

Highlights:

• Deriving real-time decision rules from optimal solutions obtained offline

• Generating random equivalent optimal solutions against overfitting

• Theoretic analysis of decision tree performance

• Practical case study in multimodal inland transportation

摘要

Hinterland networks for container transportation require planning methods in order to increase efficiency and reliability of the inland road, rail and waterway connections. In this paper we aim to derive real-time decision rules for suitable allocations of containers to inland services by analysing the solution structure of a centralised optimisation method used offline on historic data. The decision tree can be used in a decision support system (DSS) for instantaneously allocating incoming orders to suitable services, without the need for continuous planning updates. Such a DSS is beneficial, as it is easy to implement in the current practice of container transportation. Earlier proposed centralised methods can find the optimal solution for the intermodal inland transportation problem in retrospect, but are not suitable when information becomes gradually available.

论文关键词:Intermodal planning,Synchromodal planning,Container transportation,Decision support,Decision trees

论文评审过程:Received 12 June 2015, Revised 17 March 2016, Accepted 5 June 2016, Available online 14 June 2016, Version of Record 1 August 2016.

论文官网地址:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2016.06.004