A simulation-based decision support tool for dynamic post-disaster pedestrian evacuation

摘要

Taiwan, located in the Pacific Ring of Fire, is highly vulnerable to the destructive impact of powerful earthquakes. When a massive earthquake occurs, failure to take proper measures can lead to massive casualties, collapse of public facilities, and disruption to traffic networks. Among the many post-disaster management strategies, efficient evacuation is absolutely critical as it can potentially reduce the number of casualties substantially. At present, most post-disaster evacuation decisions are made based on past experience, but the rarity of high-magnitude earthquakes impedes the rate at which the quality of the decision-making process can improve. As such, this study primarily aims to develop an efficient and credible evacuation simulation modeling framework which can be used as a powerful tool to bolster evacuation strategies. The simulation evacuation framework we propose is known as the Stochastic Pedestrian Cell Transmission Model (SPCTM). The model is built based on real data of the mapping of roads and emergency shelters in an urban environment, as well as predictive models of pedestrian flow, the number of people needed to be evacuated after an earthquake, and the impact of earthquakes on urban infrastructure. Much of the data is provided by the Taiwan Earthquake Impact Research and Information Application platform (TERIA) developed by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). Applying this data, the model divides the traffic network into a cellular structure, applies the concepts of inflow and outflow to represent population movement and uses random variables to simulate the selection behavior of pedestrian agents. In addition to SPCTM, we propose an alternative model which makes slight modifications to SPCTM to offer users a complementary framework in which evacuees are armed with less ideal information about the evacuation situation. An empirical study is run in a district of Taipei, Taiwan based on a simulated earthquake of magnitude 6.5 in which the overall and moment-by-moment simulation evacuation process is presented. The use of SPCTM as a simulation evacuation model is compared to the current government evacuation policy in Taiwan. Further potential benefits of using the proposed simulation evacuation tool are numerous. For example, the frameworks proposed in this study can offer valuable insights to policy-makers on infrastructure design decisions and evacuation strategies before an earthquake occurs, including the best placement of relief centers, to potentially significantly reduce the number of casualties. Also, simulation results can be utilized after a disaster to assist in crucial decisions related to road restoration priorities, distribution of supplies to shelters, etc.