The convergence of Moore's/Mooers' law's

摘要

A four-stage hypothesis of information systems development is presented. The stages derive from the application of Moore's Law—that the number of elements that can be integrated onto a chip is doubling roughly every year—the expression of the very rapid exponential rate of growth of information systems technology, and the application of Mooers' Law—that an information system will only be used when it is more trouble not to use it than it is to use it—the quintessential expression of the importance of human factors. It is argued that we are now roughly halfway along this developmental process, about to make the transition from Stage II to Stage 111, and that from that conclusion we can make some useful projections for and about the future.