Air passenger demand forecasting and passenger terminal capacity expansion: A system dynamics framework

摘要

This paper deals with how to develop a model to forecast air passenger demand and to evaluate some policy scenarios related with runway and passenger terminal capacity expansion to meet the future demand. System dynamics frameworks can be used to model, to analyze and to generate scenario to increase the system performance because of its capability of representing physical and information flows, based on information feedback control that are continuously converted into decisions and actions. We found that airfare impact, level of service impact, GDP, population, number of flights per day and dwell time play an important roles in determining the air passenger volume, runway utilization and total additional area needed for passenger terminal capacity expansion.