Modeling Internet firm survival using Bayesian dynamic models with time-varying coefficients

摘要

We showcase a Bayesian dynamic analysis and apply it to a study on the impact of a set of industry, firm and e-commerce-related factors on Internet firm survival. Through the use of one age-based and another calendar time-based dynamic Bayesian model, we are able to examine how the impact of these factors changes over time. Our results are based on data from 115 publicly-traded Internet firms and suggest that Internet firm survival relates to different factors, such as the initial public offerings rate of Internet stocks in the market, financial capital and firm size at different stages in their lifetimes, whose influence may have changed over time.