Predicting the long-term citation impact of recent publications

作者：

Highlights：

• We predict the long-term citation impact of recent publications.

• Impact factor and number of citations in the first year are used as predictors.

• The prediction model is based on quantile regression.

• The model gives a probability distribution for a publication's future citation count.

• The model also works well when applied to publications not used in fitting the model.

摘要

Highlights•We predict the long-term citation impact of recent publications.•Impact factor and number of citations in the first year are used as predictors.•The prediction model is based on quantile regression.•The model gives a probability distribution for a publication's future citation count.•The model also works well when applied to publications not used in fitting the model.

论文关键词：Citation analysis,Citation impact,Impact factor,Prediction,Quantile estimation,Quantile regression

论文评审过程：Received 30 March 2015, Revised 14 June 2015, Accepted 15 June 2015, Available online 25 August 2015, Version of Record 25 August 2015.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2015.06.005