Potential index: Revealing the future impact of research topics based on current knowledge networks

作者：

Highlights：

• The relationship between the impact of a research topic and its knowledge structure is investigated.

• Potential index, an immediate indicator based on the current knowledge network structure, is proposed to model the future impact of research topics.

• Knowledge novelty and diversity, quantified by the betweenness centrality and network entropy, are considered two major driving fore of topic impact.

• The proposed indicator is highly correlated with the topic impact and fits the developing trend well. It serves as a promising predictor for the scholarly impact of research topics.

摘要

•The relationship between the impact of a research topic and its knowledge structure is investigated.•Potential index, an immediate indicator based on the current knowledge network structure, is proposed to model the future impact of research topics.•Knowledge novelty and diversity, quantified by the betweenness centrality and network entropy, are considered two major driving fore of topic impact.•The proposed indicator is highly correlated with the topic impact and fits the developing trend well. It serves as a promising predictor for the scholarly impact of research topics.

论文关键词：Knowledge network,Scientific impact,Emerging topic identification,Potential index

论文评审过程：Received 30 November 2020, Revised 7 March 2021, Accepted 13 April 2021, Available online 9 May 2021, Version of Record 9 May 2021.

论文官网地址：https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2021.101165